Jun 11, 2010

Big Money in Social Apps Virtual Goods

Investment Opportunities in Social Apps – Not Just Publishers and Not Just in the US


The industry is well on its way to contribute $835 million to the $1.6 billion US virtual goods market this year.  And even though many developers’ traffic has been wracked by Facebook’s changes to its communication channels, there are still opportunities for investment, as leading social app investors told us recently.


We're just excited it's Friday. Let's all go out and buy some virtual beers and contribute to the billions being made by those social games out there.

Jun 10, 2010

For Power Users: The iPhone vs Android Showdown

With the new iPhone being released in two weeks and the Android OS continuously getting better software and hardware, the battle between these two is more fierce than ever. Obviously when buying a phone of this type, doing as much research as possible in order to make sure you get the best phone for your money, for what YOU’RE going to use it for. So what phone should you spend your pennies on?
Though this article provides (obviously biased) comparison between the two platforms there are two key areas that they fail to address which still give iPhone the advantage.

Fragmentation
The Android phone market is rapidly fragmenting with all the new handsets making is very difficult for users to find the apps they want. This, in addition to the lack of any Android Marketplace curation or moderation, makes for a vastly inferior Android experience.

Applications
Not to be redundant, but the quality and accessibility of the Android apps in the marketplace leaves a lot to be desired. Developers with quality apps get lost in deluge of crap apps. Even the service providers attempts at their own App Stores are flimsy. Is anyone home at the Android Marketplace? It will be interesting to see if these new phones have an impact on the app market which for Android is estimated to be at $1.7 million annually compared to Apples $250 million.

We're hoping the slew of Android tablets coming out this year to compete with the iPad have a positive impact on the Android app market. We're banking on it. Our new indie title Hercules: Curse of the Hydra, which is due out this summer, will be released on a bevy of Android tablets. Here is hoping for change for the better!

Jun 8, 2010

Lazy, Hazy, Crazy: The 10 Laws of Behavioral Cloudonomics

Cloud computing is taking its turn as the hot technology that will solve everyone's problems. It turns out there is a complex psychology to cloud computing, but this article goes beyond that. We think we learned a lot about life, and why we always get the venti size at Starbucks. Check out the full article for the whole skinny.


  • Risk and Loss Aversion — There are emotional and perceptual asymmetries between losses and gains. A loss is more painful than a commensurate gain is pleasurable: losing a $10 bill can be more irritating than finding one is joyful. Certainly CIOs must exercise due diligence regarding proposed cloud initiatives, but should also be aware that these asymmetries may cause some concerns to be overweighted relative to benefits such as total cost reduction and enhanced agility.

  • Flat-Rate Bias — One effect of loss aversion is that consumers often prefer flat-rate plans (PDF) even when pay-per-use would cost less. With flat rates or up-front capital expenditures, the charges are never in doubt. The cloud’s pay-per-use pricing for on-demand resources typically reduces total cost while enhancing scalability, but the pleasure of a dollar saved may not outweigh the fear of loss from auto-scaling gone awry. Flat-rate buckets, monitoring and reporting, and auto-scaling policy management with maximum capacity limits can help.

  • Need for Control and Autonomy — Author David Rock reports that people have a deep-seated need for control over their environment (PDF), or they may exhibit “learned helplessness” and shortened life spans (PDF). Owning a data center may provide a perception of greater control over assets, making dashboards, portals, transparent policies and fine-grained management essential for cloud providers. Autonomy —“I can do it myself!”— is an important driver for cloud computing. Developers can autonomously procure infrastructure resources, and platform services enable the democratization of IT.

  • Fear of Change — Rock also observes that people are often uncomfortable with uncertainty and therefore fear change. The cloud offers not just new technologies but new business and organizational models. Consequently, overcoming the inertia of the traditional owned asset model may require free trials, unalterable and explicit privacy policies, and/or multiyear price guarantees.

  • The Endowment Effect — People value goods that they already own more than they would pay to acquire them. Ariely showed that for the same hard-to-acquire Duke basketball tickets, students were willing to pay up to about $170, but weren’t willing to sell them for less than $2,400. Add in the choice-supportive bias, which rationalizes selected options and discounts unselected ones, and a stubborn fondness for existing IT technology and organization assets can be understood.

  • The Status Quo Bias and Escalation of Commitment — Moreover, we tend toprefer things the way they’ve always been, and invest additional amounts in past strategies which we have pursued. Again, this can lead to inertia slowing the adoption of new approaches.

  • Hyperbolic Discounts and Instant Gratification — People tend to discount future risks and benefits hyperbolically, that is, more steeply than accounting texts teach: a chocolate chip cookie is much more valuable now than in an hour. This is good for the cloud, which promises instant gratification via on-demand services. Moreover, the “pain” of payment is deferred, thus discounted.

  • The Zero-Price Effect -– Ariely argues that zero is special. People would rather receive a free $10 gift certificate (a $10 gain) than pay $7 for a $20 one ($13 gain). This also benefits the cloud, since up-front costs are typically eliminated.

  • Need for Status — Rock points out that humans and other social primates have exquisite, fine-grained status detectors. For cloud adoption, the status associated with managing a large IT organization with a substantial asset base needs to be replaced by the status accruing to being perceived as an innovator through the use of cloud services.

  • Paradox of Choice — Web commerce has enabled a shift from a few big hits to along tail of boundless choice. However, too many choices may cause paralysis by analysis, reducing sales. Fewer bundles, rather than unlimited configurability, may best boost service provider revenues.
  • The next Silicon Valley? It may be New York

    Silicon Valley -- or Silicon Alley? To non-techies, that's the San Francisco Bay Area versus New York. If you're an internet startup company, it's a debate that's probably plagued you at some point.

    Do you remember the giant Double Click "Welcome to Silicon Alley" sign? The late nineties parties where models swooned with geeks as start ups blew threw venture money like so much confetti. Heady days, friends.

    Today's New York tech scene has a different, more grounded flavor, but who knows we may be heading back to the glory days of NY tech. I could use a few more VC funded cocktails.... well, if it's at someone else's start up. Having lived through the ups and downs of the economy in NYC for the last 10 years we appreciate what a rare opportunity it is to have your idea believed in, nurtured to a company and product that is brought to fruition. Yes.. we have a few ideas we're looking to step into the ring with.

    Take a look at the article and let us know what you think.

    Jun 4, 2010

    Cellphone in New Role: Loyalty Card

    Loyalty cards — those little paper cards that promise a free sandwich or coffee after 10 purchases, but instead get lost or forgotten — are going mobile. And merchants are looking for ways to marry the concept to games that customers can play to earn more free items and, it is hoped, spend more money.
    We love this article. It fits in with our mantra that everything is a game. Loyalty programs have always had game-like properties a game, so it makes sense that these be structured around digital and real world play. Don't be surprised if you are playing games while in the check out line of your favorite grocery store sometime soon. In some ways what we're seeing is simply a defined rule set which allows measured competition for activities that have always been played like a game.

    Check out teh article and let us know what you think.

    Jun 3, 2010

    Searching With Google On Your Mobile? Expect To See Apps In Your Results

    Google is working hard to be the best search engine on the go, and today is tweaking their algorithms to include applications in their mobile results. If you use an iPhone or Android device, for certain search terms Google will now offer you an application to download along with your regular search results.

    One of the greatest drawbacks for developers and users to the Google market place, all Android AppStores, and the iTunes Appstore presently is the  lack of visibility for apps. Users can't find quality apps that are relevant to them easily.
    Curation, up till now was based on apps that are most popular or are those that are curated by the Appstore gatekeepers. This new innovation by Google has the potential to change the face of the smart phone app market. We're very excited about it. Check out the full article to learn more.

    Jun 2, 2010

    Name Analyzer and Spanish-Language Apps Top This Week’s List of Fastest-Gaining Facebook Apps by DAU

    We're interested to see if this trend towards foreign language apps means that the English language market has plateaued.

    Check out the article and let us know what you think.

    Top Gainers This Week
    Name DAU Gain↓ Gain, %
    1. icon My Empire 715,564 +615,889 +617.90
    2. icon PetVille 3,765,887 +399,202 +11.86
    3. icon MindJolt Games 2,819,402 +336,994 +13.58
    4. icon Name Analyzer 336,958 +335,298 +20,198.67
    5. icon Café World 6,099,510 +252,493 +4.32
    6. icon Facebook 18,502,708 +243,808 +1.34
    7. icon Entrevista tus Amigos 358,923 +184,522 +105.80
    8. icon Frases Diarias 1,019,638 +149,403 +17.17
    9. icon Texas HoldEm Poker 5,745,522 +136,127 +2.43
    10. icon Causes 1,202,757 +134,357 +12.58
    11. icon Nightclub City 708,738 +120,629 +20.51
    12. icon Mall World 538,288 +102,572 +23.54
    13. icon Ranch Town 194,202 +95,946 +97.65
    14. icon phrases 4 fun 126,651 +91,633 +261.67
    15. icon Games 487,339 +89,417 +22.47
    16. icon Crazy Cow Music Quiz 100,560 +85,521 +568.66
    17. icon American Flag 83,971 +81,921 +3,996.15
    18. icon Good and Evil 117,491 +77,343 +192.64
    19. icon Wild Ones 526,480 +77,339 +17.22
    20. icon Baking Life 211,049 +74,963 +55.09

    Apr 28, 2010

    In-game Sponsorship and Advertising

    Being as we are a sort of digital steward for many high-profile licensed properties and brands, we are often tasked to think of creative ways to involve sponsors and advertisers in games for fairly disparate brands. On the flip side, we can also find it somewhat difficult to explain this integration to our clients, convincing them that it will not dilute their brand. This has been a challenge we’ve faced for a while, so we developed a series of “tiers” of increasingly complex and involved sponsorship opportunities in games we develop.

    Tier 1 is the application of traditional media placement and sponsorship within games. Interstitials, logos, banners, these are all to be placed within the property in ways analogous to traditional print, web, and on-air practices. These methods are inexpensive to include, easily swapped out or rotated, and readily understandable to less game-savvy clients.

    Tier 2 is generally feature specific and involves an understanding of gameplay. Clients should be interested in a specific area of a property, as their exposure will be contextual and will be most effective if they understand the audience of a specific area of the game or of the demographics of recipients. For example, brands that would want to sponsor the “Choose Your Do” section of Jersey Shore Yourself might be those interested in promoting hair products.

    Games that lend themselves to this sort of sponsorship are those that have:

    a. Multiple points of entry/exit (iphone, web, FB)

    b. Multiple “rooms” or components with some degree of segmentation

    c. “meme”-style hooks (brands get more mileage by latching on to existing cultural phenomena than by trying to create them from scratch)

    Tier 3 is similar to traditional co-branding. There is deep integration with the game, whether through rewards and incentives, or through product placement in-game (See Comedy Central Supermarket Death Race with Keystone placement).

    The sponsor should be interested in seeing their product tied deeply with the property for which the game is an extension. The application of these methods is flexible (can do themed levels or an entire themed game) but the games should always remain mutually exclusive in terms of competitive brands (i.e. Natural Light and Miller Lite should not appear in the same game.)

    This is the most time-consuming form of sponsorship, but it is also the most rewarding in terms of brand effect and exposure. It is difficult to swap out from sponsor to sponsor, as graphics and sometimes even game play have been customized for the product.